Adrian Kavanagh, 21st November 2010
The latest Sunday Business Post/Red C poll figures estimate party support as follows: Fianna Fail 17%, Fine Gael 33%, Labour Party 27%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 3%, Independents/Others 8%, marking a 1% gain for Fine Gael and a 1% loss for Fianna Fail relative to the October 24th poll while Labour support levels remain static. The main gain is made by Sinn Fein, whose support levels increase by 2%. On the basis of these poll figures, my analysis would estimate party seat numbers in the next Dail as follows: Fianna Fail 29, Fine Gael 66, Labour Party 49, Sinn Fein 12, Green Party 0, Independents/Others 10.
What is most striking about these poll figures is perhaps the limited degree of change involved since the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (October 24th) with the 2% increase in Sinn Fein support probably marking the most significant movement to be observed in these poll figures. The increase in Sinn Fein support nationally is probably a reflection of the higher profile being placed on the party at present, mainly reflecting the strong Pearse Doherty Donegal South West by-election campaign as well as the recent announcement that Gerry Adams will contest the next general election in the Louth constituency.
Constituency estimates of party support levels, based on these poll figures, as well as the predicted numbers of seats by the different political parties, stand as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 21.4% | 39.2% | 27.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 15.8% | 38.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 32.4% | 7.6% |
| Clare | 21.3% | 50.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 13.2% |
| Cork East | 12.7% | 30.6% | 45.7% | 1.5% | 8.9% | 0.5% |
| Cork North Central | 13.1% | 29.9% | 29.5% | 2.0% | 11.6% | 13.7% |
| Cork North West | 26.0% | 55.6% | 15.7% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cork South Central | 19.5% | 37.0% | 26.6% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 2.4% |
| Cork South West | 17.6% | 44.0% | 26.0% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| Donegal North East | 23.1% | 30.6% | 5.5% | 1.0% | 31.1% | 8.8% |
| Donegal South West | 22.6% | 30.3% | 8.1% | 1.0% | 36.7% | 1.3% |
| Dublin Central | 17.6% | 11.2% | 32.5% | 3.6% | 14.1% | 21.0% |
| Dublin Mid West | 14.6% | 15.7% | 31.4% | 7.5% | 15.9% | 15.0% |
| Dublin North | 19.2% | 18.9% | 28.6% | 11.9% | 4.7% | 16.7% |
| Dublin North Central | 19.0% | 32.6% | 20.5% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 18.1% |
| Dublin North East | 14.8% | 25.2% | 36.8% | 3.9% | 19.3% | 0.0% |
| Dublin North West | 17.3% | 10.4% | 46.8% | 1.5% | 21.5% | 2.5% |
| Dublin South | 18.8% | 36.6% | 31.0% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 0.4% |
| Dublin South Central | 11.0% | 14.1% | 45.7% | 3.0% | 13.0% | 13.2% |
| Dublin South East | 11.7% | 22.5% | 44.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% |
| Dublin South West | 13.3% | 20.0% | 44.0% | 2.0% | 15.9% | 4.8% |
| Dublin West | 13.5% | 21.7% | 40.1% | 2.1% | 6.7% | 15.9% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 13.6% | 27.2% | 40.8% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 10.3% |
| Galway East | 18.7% | 54.6% | 9.6% | 1.4% | 5.9% | 9.8% |
| Galway West | 17.7% | 28.7% | 34.3% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 9.7% |
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 10.8% | 33.0% | 24.6% | 1.0% | 27.4% | 3.2% |
| Kerry South | 15.4% | 28.0% | 33.2% | 1.1% | 5.2% | 17.1% |
| Kildare North | 14.7% | 23.3% | 42.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 13.5% |
| Kildare South | 20.2% | 20.3% | 54.1% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| Laois-Offaly | 31.4% | 45.1% | 8.7% | 1.0% | 11.0% | 2.8% |
| Limerick City | 22.4% | 34.7% | 31.0% | 1.9% | 7.5% | 2.5% |
| Limerick | 23.0% | 57.4% | 17.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 15.4% | 34.3% | 43.1% | 1.0% | 5.7% | 0.5% |
| Louth | 18.0% | 37.1% | 13.9% | 5.1% | 24.9% | 1.1% |
| Mayo | 9.6% | 62.6% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 7.7% | 16.6% |
| Meath East | 17.7% | 31.2% | 31.7% | 2.0% | 6.2% | 11.2% |
| Meath West | 23.9% | 39.7% | 12.2% | 1.8% | 20.3% | 2.1% |
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 16.8% | 50.0% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 14.1% | 12.8% |
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 17.4% | 49.2% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 19.3% | 1.4% |
| Tipperary North | 13.1% | 17.9% | 25.5% | 0.7% | 5.6% | 37.4% |
| Tipperary South | 20.0% | 26.9% | 24.6% | 1.0% | 5.1% | 22.4% |
| Waterford | 18.7% | 32.6% | 29.8% | 1.3% | 10.5% | 7.1% |
| Wexford | 16.4% | 36.1% | 34.8% | 0.7% | 11.1% | 0.9% |
| Wicklow | 14.1% | 25.4% | 39.5% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 9.5% |
| STATE | 17.2% | 33.3% | 27.3% | 3.0% | 11.1% | 8.1% |
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Cork East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Cork South Central | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Cork South West | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Donegal North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin Mid West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North West | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin South | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Dublin South Central | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South East | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Galway East | 1 | 3 | ||||
| Galway West | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kerry South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Kildare South | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Laois-Offaly | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Louth | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Mayo | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Tipperary North | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tipperary South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| STATE | 29 | 66 | 49 | 0 | 12 | 10 |
The number of seats that Fianna Fail are predicted to win in the Dublin region based on these poll figures is six, having won nineteen seats in this region in the 2007 General Election. To make matters worst for the party in this region, all of these six seats would be marginal with the party struggling to win these even on the current estimated levels, especially if unfavourable vote transfers and poor vote management by the party, with too few votes being split between too many candidates, work against Fianna Fail seat prospects in this, and other, regions.
On these poll figures, a “Kenny Krusade” would see Fine Gael at its highest number of Dail seats since the high point of the Fitzgerald era (the November 1982 election) and leave the party with the theoretical prospects of going into government with Labour (the most likely option), Fianna Fail or a Sinn Fein/Independent combination. At the same time, a “Gilmore Gale” result would see Labour win the highest ever number of seats in the party’s history, a 50% higher number of seats that the party’s previous highpoint, the Spring Tide 1992 election. With Sinn Fein seats estimated at 12, the party too would be envisaged to win a historically high level of Dail seats, the most won by the party since the 1920s. The Green Party is predicted to win no seats at the next general election based on these poll figures, with Dublin North probably offering the most realistic prospect of a party seat. The independents and smaller parties grouping is predicted to win ten seats based on these poll figures, with six of these being on the left of the political spectrum, leaving sixty seven seats in the next Dail being filled by left-wing deputies.
Irish Politics Forum 
This poll was done before the IMF arrived – so this poll might be already out of date. It could be much worse for Fianna Fáil now.
After the budget it will be even worse for Fianna Fail
A Labour/ Sinn Fein/left independent government might be possible on the numbers. The fate of the Irish National party in 1918 awaits Fianna Fail.
Current poll gives fianna Fail +Fine Gael 50%
A significant fraction of votes leaked from Fiann Fail in future will not go to Fine Gael so FF+FG will be below 50%
The demise of Fianna Fail
(continued)
The demise of Fianna Fail will destabilise the entire post-1932 political equilibrium. There will be serious internal problems for Fine Gael and Labour. New left and right parties will emerge.
It depends who the FF survivors are – if it is a rump of ‘honest’ type, rare as they are in FF or if it will be crony Willie O’Dea/Beverly Flynn types.
Labour isn’t a left wing party – the fact Gilmore saw nothing wrong with his wife pocketing such a massive windfall and even worse, being so tight fisted and nasty, that she then wouldn’t give an extra bit of land for free, but thought it was right to milk even more money, tells you all you need to know about what sort of ‘left wing’ Labour is, so I wouldn’t worry about the ‘left wing’ overpowering the right wing parties.
But wouldn’t it be interesting if FG and FF were to finally join forces – if the rump of FF is the honest rump.
However, FG and Lab have waited so long to get back in power they’ll have probably already met to agree the small print of the programme for government, so it’s ready the day after the election to be presented to each party.